Prespector MTBF - Update your failure rates easily

Update your risk analysis quickly with your own failure data using a Bayesian Update. Easy to use by Reliability or Maintenance Engineers.


by Prespector

How this app makes your life easier

Find your bad actors

Upload your maintenance work orders and find your bad actors based on their updated failure rates.

Optimize maintenance

Use your updated MTBF to optimize your preventive maintenance. Save costs and increase availability.

Specific failure database

Create your own system-specific failure database for future risk analysis.

"While working as a Reliability Engineer in Infra and Industry, I noticed that failure data from the field was often not used to embed the knowledge of assets. The Bayesian update is a well-accepted method for this. Hence, I created this application." - Bart Groenenboom, Reliability Engineer | Prespector

Better risk analysis with the Bayesian Update

What does your own experience with your assets tell you about their performance? Are they underperforming, or not? Evaluating the lifetime of your assets might be difficult when the number of asset failures are still limited. That is why, instead of going off of your experience only, you can also use the statistical method of the Bayesian Update.

The Bayesian Update in Prespector helps you relate your gathered failure records to your initial assumption about the expected lifetime of the assets. With improved estimations of the failure rates at hand, you can plan your preventive maintenance more efficiently to reduce cost and increase availability.

*The Bayesian Update is a proven method for combining your failure information with generic data from manufacturers of public sources, like OREDA, EIREDA, and MIL-HDBK-117. The method is described in the Dutch guideline PGS-4 (Publicatie Reeks Gevaarlijke stoffen, 2005) 'Methods for Determining and Processing Probabilities'.

3 failure data templates

After collecting failure data from your facility, you can upload it to the Prespector app by filling one of the three provided templates:

  1. Work orders containing asset and failure date
  2. Asset information, such as asset type and risk ranking
  3. Failure rates that can be personalized for future risk analysis

slide 1 prespector - wo, fr, assets.JPG

Analysize and recalculate

When your data is uploaded, you can use the app to analyze specific assets or asset types. It is also possible to recalculate all failure rates of assets you have information on at once and download an Excel sheet of the newly calculated rates after. Use this new failure probability to update your risk analysis (e.g. FMECA or HAZOP) and preventive maintenance plans.

slide 2 prespector - workorders.JPG Workorder analysis

slide 3 prespector - failure distribution.JPG Failure distribution visualization

slide 5 prespector - updated failure rates - asset types.JPG Updated risk analysis